India’s e-commerce market has been projected to reach $250 billion by 2030, growing from $90 billion at present, according to a joint report by Google and Deloitte titled ‘The $250 Billion Commerce Frontier’.
The report has indicated that the growth has been driven by an expanding digital consumer base, with 150 million new shoppers expected to enter the ecosystem and per capita spending set to double. A 220-million-strong Gen Z cohort has been expected to command 45% of online spending, shifting demand toward AI-led and personalised shopping experiences.
It has identified four key forces—Inspired, Intelligent, Instant, and Immersive—that have been projected to contribute $100 billion to overall commerce growth by 2030.
Creator-led commerce has been expected to play a significant role, with creators projected to influence 30% of total retail spending. The report has stated that one in ten online purchases will be directly linked to creator storefronts, particularly in Tier 2 and beyond markets, where creators are expected to bring 60 million new shoppers online.
To support this shift, YouTube has onboarded Tira, a beauty platform by Reliance Retail, into its Shopping Affiliate Program. The platform has expanded its merchant partnerships to include Flipkart, Myntra, Nykaa, and Purplle, enabling creators to integrate product discovery within content.
Quick commerce has been projected to evolve into a $50 billion segment, with its user base expected to double to 70 million. Tier 2+ cities have been expected to contribute 30% of the market, while non-food categories such as beauty, fashion, and electronics have been projected to account for 45% of total spending.
The report has highlighted the emergence of hybrid retail models integrating offline inventory with digital platforms, unlocking an estimated $20 billion in additional spending.
Artificial intelligence has been identified as a key driver of profitability, with the potential to boost retail margins by 30–35% through hyper-personalisation and operational efficiencies. Google has introduced new shopping features within its Gemini app and upgraded AI-driven shopping capabilities in Search in India to support this transition.
Immersive technologies such as augmented reality and virtual try-on have been reported to influence buying behaviour, with one in three Indian shoppers preferring virtual trials. The report has noted that 72% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for technology-enabled shopping experiences, while 89% expect a seamless journey across online and offline channels.
The findings have been based on a collaborative study by Google and Deloitte, with consumer insights from Kantar, focusing on shifts in digital commerce, consumer behaviour, and technology adoption in India.
“This is a pivotal moment for Indian commerce driven by a fundamental shift in how India shops. Consumers today demand experiences inspired by storytelling, powered by AI and immersive technologies, and anchored by instant fulfillment. At Google, we are committed to empowering this ecosystem through intelligence and trust. From our virtual try on tool and shopping features in AI Mode and now, Gemini app to creators driving commerce on YouTube, we are streamlining the journey from brainstorming to browsing to final purchase. Central to this evolution is our focus on agentic AI, where we are building tools to benefit both consumers and brands. We are excited to partner with the ecosystem to drive this new standard of commerce, leveraging AI to turn the ‘love for the find’ into a personalized, seamless reality for every consumer.” — Roma Datta Chobey, Managing Director – Connected Consumer Commerce, Google India
“India’s e-commerce landscape is entering a structurally different phase, moving from mass marketing to an era of algorithmic intimacy, where demand is not just predicted but synthesized in real time. A new cohort of digital-first consumers, led by Gen Z, is driving this shift, valuing authenticity alongside speed and relevance. This is accelerating the rise of generative commerce, where consumers can describe a need and AI curates or even creates solutions instantly. We are also beginning to see the emergence of curation-as-a-service, with AI-led journeys reshaping discovery, decision-making and fulfilment. For businesses, the opportunity lies in combining intelligent technology, creator ecosystems and agile supply chains to drive deeper engagement, higher wallet share and sustainable growth.” — Anand Ramanathan, Partner & Consumer Industry Leader – South Asia, Deloitte
