Meta has been projected to surpass Google in total digital advertising revenues globally and in the US by the end of 2026, marking a significant shift in the digital advertising landscape, according to an Emarketer forecast.
Meta has been expected to reach $243.46 billion in worldwide ad revenues in 2026, compared to Google’s projected $239.54 billion. The shift has followed a reversal from 2025, when Google had led with $214.06 billion while Meta had reported $196.17 billion.
In terms of global market share, Meta has been projected to command 26.8% of worldwide digital ad spend in 2026, surpassing Google’s 26.4%. Google’s share has been declining since 2021, while Meta’s has steadily increased over the same period.
Meta’s growth has accelerated, with its global ad revenue growth rate rising from 22.1% in 2025 to 24.1% in 2026. In comparison, Google’s growth has remained stable at 11.9%. This growth has been attributed to Meta’s ability to monetise its ecosystem more effectively, including platforms such as Facebook and Instagram, along with advancements in AI-driven advertising tools and automation.
Features such as Advantage+ and AI-generated creatives have improved ad performance, while formats like Reels have driven higher engagement and returns for advertisers. As a result, advertisers have increasingly allocated budgets toward Meta’s platforms.
Meanwhile, Amazon has remained the third-largest player in digital advertising. It has recorded $68.64 billion in ad revenues in 2025 and has been projected to grow to $82.07 billion in 2026 and $97.07 billion in 2027. Its share of global digital ad spending has been expected to reach 9.0% in 2026.
Collectively, Meta, Google, and Amazon have been projected to account for 62.3% of total worldwide digital ad spending in 2026, reflecting continued consolidation driven by first-party data, AI integration, and large-scale audience reach.
The forecast has noted that recent legal developments involving major platforms are unlikely to have an immediate impact on advertising spend, as advertiser decisions have continued to be driven primarily by performance outcomes rather than regulatory uncertainty.
“In surpassing Google, Meta has essentially had many of its core strategies validated,” said Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer. “Meta has long understood that scale, network effects, and habits are more important than anything else in digital media. It has carefully built and defended the advantages it has in all three areas.”
“Meta’s growth is not coming from just one source,” said Zach Goldner, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer. “Instead, it’s unlocking more value across its entire ecosystem at the same time. Tools like its Advantage+, AI-generated ad creatives, and its broader automation stack are improving performance across both Facebook and Instagram, with Reels being a big beneficiary. As a result, advertisers are getting better bang for their buck, and that’s pulling more ad dollars onto the platform.”
“For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps, the question is how much they should spend,” Willens said.
“Google has plenty of levers it can pull to try to speed up growth,” Willens said. “But the diversity of its business—it generates billions of dollars in subscriber revenues from YouTube Premium, for example—may make it harder for it to leapfrog past Meta in terms of digital ad revenues.”
“These cases will take years to fully play out through appeals and additional trials, and they don’t immediately force changes to how these platforms operate today,” Goldner said. “More importantly, advertisers don’t reallocate billions of dollars based on legal risk, they follow performance, and that is the bigger driver behind the shifting balance between Meta and Google.”
“The consolidation of digital ad dollars around Google, Meta, and Amazon reflects a compounding advantage of first-party data, AI integrations, and audience reach,” said Drew Spink, senior forecasting analyst at Emarketer. “Smaller platforms and traditional media can’t replicate these capabilities in comparable cost or speed and, as a result, incremental budgets continue to flow in that direction.”
