Media Partners Asia (MPA) has released a report analysing the commercial trajectory of the Indian Premier League (IPL), projecting that media rights for the 2028–32 cycle have remained flat at $5.4 billion, marking a slowdown after nearly two decades of growth.
The report has highlighted that IPL media rights revenues have grown six-fold since 2008, reaching $5.4 billion in the current 2023–27 cycle. However, it has projected a 13% decline in per-match value, from $13.2 million to $11.5 million, due to the expanded 94-match format. It has also noted that the competitive intensity seen in previous auctions has reduced following consolidation in the broadcasting landscape.
According to the findings, rights holders have faced cumulative losses of $1.8–2.0 billion in the current cycle. Advertising revenue growth has slowed to 7% CAGR over the last three seasons compared to 18% in the previous cycle, impacted by the exit of key sectors such as ed-tech and real-money gaming, along with restrictions on crypto advertising.
The report has further stated that media rights have accounted for 75% of total franchise revenues, up from 48% in 2017. While EBITDA margins have expanded to 34%, this has increased exposure to downside risks if rights values correct. Non-media revenues have grown at 22% CAGR since the pandemic, albeit from a smaller base.
MPA has also observed increased franchise stake sales, indicating that teams have been preparing for limited upside in future rights cycles. Additionally, while digital viewership has continued to scale, monetisation challenges have persisted, creating a gap between streaming revenues and costs.
“The IPL has created extraordinary value over two decades, but the conditions that drove that growth are now shifting in ways that are structurally consequential. The rights reset in 2028 will not be a correction to be absorbed and forgotten. It marks the beginning of a period in which franchise value creation depends on building the non-media revenue base, focusing on sponsorship, international presence and digital monetisation. Owners and investors who are pricing franchises today on current EBITDA multiples need to factor in both the rights cycle headwind and the concentration risk it implies. The window at current multiples may be shorter than the market assumes.”, Mihir Shah, Vice President, India at Media Partners Asia (MPA).
